After nearly three years of war that has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives and displaced millions, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, on December 23–24, 2024, publicly unveiled a comprehensive 20-point peace framework developed in coordination with the United States and European partners.
The plan addresses not only an immediate ceasefire, but also security guarantees, territorial issues, economic reconstruction, and Ukraine’s long-term integration into Western institutions. Two critical points remain unresolved: territorial control in the Donbas region and management of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
The framework opens with explicit recognition of Ukraine’s sovereignty, with all signatories, including Russia, confirming this through their signatures. This directly counters Russia’s long-standing challenge to Ukrainian statehood and rebuts Putin’s February 2022 claim that “modern Ukraine was entirely created by Russia.”
The second point establishes a full and unconditional non-aggression pact between Russia and Ukraine, supported by a monitoring mechanism using satellite-based unmanned surveillance of contact lines and an early-warning system for violations. This reflects lessons from the failed Minsk agreements of 2015, which lacked reliable verification mechanisms. Space-based surveillance would provide neutral, verifiable evidence of troop movements and incursions, addressing one of the core weaknesses of previous ceasefire efforts.
The framework then sets out a commitment to robust security guarantees, rejecting the non-binding “assurances” of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which Russia violated when it invaded Crimea in 2014. This establishes the principle that Ukraine would receive enforceable protections rather than political promises.
Under the proposed force structure, Ukraine’s armed forces would be maintained at 800,000 personnel in peacetime, making it one of Europe’s largest militaries. While largely symbolic, the figure reflects Ukraine’s ongoing threat perception and serves as a political compromise rather than a practical limitation.
The most contentious provision involves Article 5-style security guarantees. Under this arrangement, the United States, NATO, and European signatories would commit to a coordinated military response and the reinstatement of all global sanctions if Russia invades Ukraine. If Ukraine were to invade Russia or fire on Russian territory without provocation, the guarantees would be void. If Russia opens fire on Ukraine, the guarantees would activate.
An earlier provision requiring U.S. compensation for providing these guarantees has been removed, while Ukraine’s existing bilateral security agreements with approximately 30 countries would remain in force. A European “Coalition of the Willing” could also participate.
This language commits the United States to potential military action without a formal congressional declaration of war. While the wording mirrors NATO’s Article 5, it does not replicate it, leaving ambiguity over whether a response would be automatic or discretionary, with the President determining the appropriate measures after consultation.
Russia would be required to codify a non-aggression policy toward Europe and Ukraine in domestic law, ratified by the State Duma. While this would create formal legal obligations under Russian law, enforcement remains doubtful given Russia’s repeated violations of international agreements, including the UN Charter, the Budapest Memorandum, and the Minsk accords.
European forces led by France and the UK would provide security across air, land, and sea domains, with the United States acting as a “backstop.” Contributions would vary by country, with some providing military forces and others supporting energy security, finance, civil defense infrastructure, and reconstruction. This envisions a European-led security presence, with U.S. involvement secondary to forces on the ground.
Ukraine would not be required to renounce NATO membership aspirations. An earlier draft mandated a constitutional amendment barring NATO membership, but this requirement was removed. NATO membership remains Ukraine’s sovereign choice, with any NATO-Russia negotiations treated as a separate process. Putin’s demand that Ukraine permanently abandon NATO ambitions was a central justification for the invasion and featured prominently in Russia’s December 2021 ultimatums.
The agreement would be legally binding and monitored by a Peace Council chaired by President Donald Trump. Membership would include Ukraine, Europe, NATO, Russia, and the United States, with violations triggering sanctions. Zelenskyy insists on congressional review, with certain annexes classified for national security. Senate ratification would significantly strengthen durability, making the agreement harder for future U.S. administrations to abandon.
However, vesting oversight in a council chaired by a single individual raises concerns about continuity beyond Trump’s term ending in January 2029. The sanctions mechanism also lacks clarity regarding what constitutes a violation and whether enforcement requires unanimous approval.
A full ceasefire would take effect immediately upon agreement. Ukraine would then submit the deal for parliamentary ratification and or a nationwide yes-or-no referendum. Security guarantees would only activate after ratification or referendum approval, with the agreement entering force once both parties meet their obligations.
This sequencing creates a serious vulnerability. While the ceasefire would take effect immediately, security guarantees would lag by at least 60 days if a referendum is required, leaving Ukraine exposed during the interim. Russia could use this gap to consolidate territorial gains without triggering the promised protections.
The framework is supplemented by three additional agreements: a trilateral security guarantees agreement among Ukraine, the United States, and Europe; a bilateral security guarantees agreement between Ukraine and the United States with more specific commitments; and a Roadmap for Ukraine’s Prosperity outlining U.S.-Ukraine economic cooperation and reconstruction through 2040.
These are the asks. It remains to be seen what Russia will accept. Consequently, this 20-point Ukraine peace framework may not bring the war even one step closer to ending.
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