Alex Nowrasteh
The Trump administration recently revoked Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Haitians. TPS was a federal designation that allowed some Haitians in the US to stay and work legally when they otherwise couldn’t. The government issued TPS in response to terrible conditions in Haiti caused by the 2010 earthquake and the collapse of the civil government. Presidents Obama, Trump, and Biden all extended TPS for Haitians.
Trump tried to cancel it for Haitians during his first term and just did so again, despite Haiti verging on anarchy to such an extent that the US State Department issued the most severe travel advisory for American travelers who might consider visiting the country. But apparently, the Trump administration believes Haiti is safe enough to receive deportations. So far, one federal judge disagrees with the Trump administration and is holding up the cancellation of TPS.
The administration’s most consistent argument against immigration is crime. Thus, using these methods, this blog post analyzes American Community Survey (ACS) data on incarceration for 2023. The incarceration rates are represented per 100,000 people in each subpopulation for the age range 18–54. Native-born Americans have an incarceration rate 48 percent higher than that of all Haitian immigrants (Figure 1). Haitian illegal immigrants have an incarceration rate 81 percent below native-born Americans, while legal Haitian immigrants have an incarceration rate about 37 percent below native-born Americans.
The rates in Figure 1 are different from 2017 for a few reasons. First, we updated our method of identifying illegal and legal immigrants, which affected the legal mix of immigrants from Haiti. Second, the Census Bureau adjusted the population weights in the ACS. Population weights are essential to make sure the sampled population accurately reflects the total population. The change in weights affected the relative numbers of illegal immigrants and legal immigrants from Haiti. Third, there were more Haitian border crossers in immigration detention in 2023 and counted as incarcerated according to our methods.
Regardless, illegal Haitian immigrants have the lowest incarceration rates of any group in Figure 1. Although we don’t have estimates of Haitian crime in subsequent generations, Haitian immigrants have a relatively low incarceration rate.