Since January 1, the political map of northern Syria has been radically redrawn as Damascus government forces and allied extremist militias have pushed into Kurdish-controlled Rojava, formally the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES). They have captured camps where ISIS prisoners are held and displaced at least 148,000 civilians.
Damascus troops are focused on severing roads connecting Rojava to Iraqi Kurdistan in order to prevent the Syrian Kurds and their Christian allies from receiving international support.
From January 6 to 10, Damascus launched an offensive on Kurdish neighborhoods in Sheikh Maqsoud, Aleppo. After five days of intense urban combat, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces withdrew, sparking civilians to flee to the northeast.
From January 13 to 17, Damascus forces, backed by Turkish intelligence and aligned tribal militias, declared “closed military zones” east of Aleppo along the Euphrates corridor. The offensive rapidly expanded, placing sustained pressure on remaining Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) positions.
Between January 18 and 19, the SDF suffered a near-collapse. In a staggering forty-eight-hour period, the force lost roughly 80 percent of its territory. Arab-majority units within the SDF defected en masse to the Damascus government, causing front lines to dissolve almost instantly.
Since January 20, Damascus has tightened a de facto siege on Hasakah and Qamishli (Qamişlo), the largest city in Rojava, forcing the SDF into a shrinking Kurdish heartland pocket. Nearly all of Reqa and Dêrazor have been ceded, leaving Kurdish forces isolated, encircled, and fighting for survival.
Many of those displaced from Aleppo are not originally from there but are part of a large community previously uprooted from Afrin (Efrîn) during Turkey’s 2018 Operation Olive Branch. Today, they are among the most vulnerable in need of humanitarian assistance.
Historically, however, the people of Afrin were among the most prosperous in Syria. The region’s fertile soil supported a thriving agricultural economy and a strong cultural identity. Known as the “Green City,” Afrin was home to an estimated 14 million olive trees, which for centuries sustained a robust middle class. Before 2018, the region was not only self-sufficient but also produced roughly one-third of Syria’s total olive oil output.
During the early years of the Syrian civil war, while other regions descended into chaos, Afrin remained relatively stable. Its agricultural economy expanded as it became a sanctuary for thousands of internally displaced persons from Aleppo and surrounding areas. Families lived in relative peace, with strong emphasis on education, gender equality, and cultural expression.
Since 2018, the people of Afrin have been displaced as many as five times. During the initial Turkish invasion, hundreds of thousands fled toward al-Shahba (Şehba), the region between Afrin and Aleppo. They also fled to Kurdish neighborhoods in Aleppo, including Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafiyeh. What followed were years of instability marked by shelling, siege conditions, and repeated searches for safety.
Between 2019 and 2023, families cycled between camps in al-Shahba, overcrowded housing in Aleppo, and the northeast, particularly Hasakah and Qamishli in search of food, work, and security. The February 2023 earthquake destroyed already fragile shelters, forcing many into a third or fourth displacement.
The collapse of state authority in December 2024 created a security vacuum that quickly filled with violence. Fighting among the Damascus government, Turkish-backed forces, and other armed groups triggered another mass exodus from Aleppo.
The January–February 2026 offensive, marked by renewed clashes and Turkish drone strikes, triggered a fifth major wave of displacement.
Many of those displaced by the recent fighting have returned home over the past two weeks as the Damascus government has consolidated control. However, those who fear the regime, particularly minorities and Christians, have remained in the shrinking Kurdish-controlled areas.
At least 100,000 displaced people are now located in and around Qamishli, where local authorities are struggling to house them and many families remain without shelter. OCHA reported that as of February 3, nearly one-third of displaced families are living in overcrowded “collective centers,” such as schools or mosques, while 67 percent are straining the resources of host families. Others remain in informal sites or unfinished buildings.
Much of the city’s infrastructure, including electricity generation and water supply, has been damaged or destroyed by Turkish airstrikes. ISIS prisoners have escaped from camps taken over by Damascus forces.
The U.S. military has begun relocating its ISIS detainees to Iraq to prevent further escapes. In total, the U.S. plans to move up to 7,000 of the roughly 9,000 to 10,000 ISIS detainees currently in custody.
The SDF is in danger of losing control of Rojava, which is not only a refuge for Kurds but also a protected space for Christians (Assyrians, Syriacs, Chaldeans, and Armenians) and other minorities. These communities live freely under the protection of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, serving in both the civilian government and defense forces. They represent some of the oldest continuous Christian communities in the world.
Now, between the Damascus government and its ISIS and al-Qaeda allies, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, and direct attacks by ISIS and Turkey, the autonomous zone is in danger of collapse. If it falls, the largest remaining Christian communities in the region may fall with it.
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