A new poll reveals nearly half of all Americans believe the United States will be drawn into a nuclear war within the next decade.
The YouGov survey, released on Wednesday, found that 46% of respondents view a nuclear war involving the United States as “very” or “somewhat” likely within the next 10 years, while only 37% believe it’s “not very” or “not at all” likely.
Even more striking, 65% of Americans expressed being “very” or “somewhat” concerned about personally experiencing a nuclear war during their lifetime, a slight dip from 69% in a similar 2022 poll, but still alarmingly high.
Demographic breakdowns reveal partisan divides in perceptions of risk.
Democrats are particularly pessimistic, with 57% anticipating U.S. involvement in a nuclear conflict, compared to 44% of independents and just 37% of Republicans.
Additionally, 77% of Democrats reported being worried about it, versus 61% of independents and 58% of Republicans.
YouGov reports, “About half (52%) of Americans believe there is a greater chance now than there was 10 years ago of a nuclear war occurring. Only 9% think there is a lesser chance now than there was in 2015, and 31% think the chances are about the same. Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say there is a greater chance now than there was 10 years ago (71% vs. 37%).”
The poll also gauged fears of non-state actors, with 44% of Democrats, 46% of Republicans, and 37% of independents reporting they believe terrorists or criminals could detonate a nuclear device in the U.S. within the decade.
These concerns come against a backdrop of heightened international threats, including Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine, Israel’s war on Gaza, China’s military buildup, and North Korea’s provocative missile tests.
Trump has also recently directed the Pentagon to resume nuclear weapons testing, which was paused in 1992 under international agreements that adversaries have allegedly ignored.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed the administration is moving “quickly” to reinstate testing, emphasizing the need to match capabilities with nations like Russia, China, North Korea, and Pakistan.
The YouGov survey, carried out from October 30 to November 2, polled 1,148 U.S. adults with a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
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