Marcos Falcone
For decades, Chile stood as Latin America’s success story, achieving prosperity based on free-market policies. Trade liberalization, the privatization of state-owned industries, fiscal responsibility, and the like had been consistently supported by both center-left and center-right administrations since the return of democracy in 1990 and until the first part of the last decade. This model turned Chile into the richest country in Latin America.
But in 2019, following years of low growth and backtracking on the free-market model, widespread protests seemed to indicate that Chile’s free-market era was about to end. Moreover, the election of left-wing Gabriel Boric in 2021, with his promise to rewrite the Constitution, signaled that socialism could actually undo Chile’s progress. That process has now come to an end.
Indeed, Chileans went to the polls on Sunday and delivered a heavy blow to the left. In the first round of the presidential election, Communist Party candidate and former Minister of Labor Jeannette Jara came in first with 27 percent of the vote, whereas Republican Party candidate José Antonio Kast received 24 percent. Since no candidate obtained more than 50 percent, a runoff will take place on December 14—and Kast is favored to win.
In a different context, the fact that the Communist Party gets 27 percent of the vote would sound catastrophic, and rightly so. But in this case, conservatives celebrated because, whereas the left united for this election, that was not the case for right-wing parties, which are now expected to coalesce behind Kast for the runoff. Following the conservative candidate was populist outsider Franco Parisi with 20 percent of the vote, libertarian Johannes Kaiser with 14 percent, and center-right Evelyn Matthei with 13 percent. While Parisi has not declared support for either Jara or Kast, both Kaiser and Matthei have already pledged support for Kast, which virtually puts him over 50 percent. This contrasts sharply with the 2021 runoff, when Boric comfortably beat Kast by a 12-point margin.
Thus, the Chilean election represents a clear break from the socialist agenda that Boric has followed since being elected. Most notably, Boric failed to create a new Constitution for Chile after a draft by his allies that was filled with new ‘rights’ was overwhelmingly rejected by voters in 2022. Boric has also failed to fight crime—over 87 percent of Chileans reported feeling less safe in 2024 than the year before, in what has become Chileans’ top concern. Additionally, the Boric administration has faced corruption scandals that further damaged his standing and that of this left-wing coalition. Although he succeeded in passing some labor and pension reforms that restrict free markets, other major reforms stalled due to a lack of support in Congress.
Kast, on the other hand, has centered his campaign on being tough on crime and illegal immigration, and he has also promised to deepen Chile’s free-market reforms by cutting public spending, lowering taxes, and deregulating the economy. If Kast is indeed elected on December 14, he will find a friendly Congress. In the House, out of 155 representatives, Kast’s coalition is set to obtain 76 seats, or 90 if he ultimately secures Parisi’s support. In the Senate, the right-wing coalition will control 25 seats, which represents exactly half of all seats.
Sunday’s results confirm what had become apparent to many: Chile’s attempt to experiment with socialism has failed. With the left out of power, this South American country will get a new chance to become a regional free-market leader alongside Milei’s Argentina. Chile may not be about to turn full libertarian, but it looks like it will leave its recent romance with big government behind.