In a viral thread on X, Notre Dame political scientist Hadar Hazony analyzed how President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu “played the world.”
“But they did more than that, they have redefined Israel-US relations and reshaped the Middle East for a generation, the same way Reagan, Thatcher, & John Paul II did for Eastern Europe,” Hazony wrote, defining what he calls “The Trump Doctrine”: “No new wars – let our allies fight for us!”
“Israel’s AF & Mossad struck Iran’s nuclear & missile facilities, assassinating scientists & generals,” Hazony wrote. “For months, the pro-Israel & isolationist factions in the Trump admin have been fighting over Iran policy. Bibi & Trump played you all, & it’s going to change history.”
When I was six, my father explained to me that you can’t believe anything politicians say publicly, “it’s all spin, all of it.”
Even their bickering & infighting, it’s all staged, and those very politicians attacking each other in the press are shaking hands in private.
2/ pic.twitter.com/N31ag6ERgr— H.A. Hazony (@HAHazony) June 15, 2025
“When I was six, my father explained to me that you can’t believe anything politicians say publicly, “it’s all spin, all of it.” Even their bickering & infighting, it’s all staged, and those very politicians attacking each other in the press are shaking hands in private. Most people are simply not cynical enough to see the world through this lens, Machiavelli is too difficult for them to swallow”, Hazony wrote. “So you heard cries of “Trump sold us out for a plane from Qatar” or “Trump is going to invade Iran & start WWIII.” On and on, all illusions. In April, Trump gave Iran 60 days to agree to a nuclear deal. Friday was day 61, time was up. Israel came down with the hammer. Contrary to all the naysayers on the left and right, Israel & US were well coordinated. Trump was notified. Bibi went to pray at the Western Wall,” the thread continues.
On Friday night, all of Israel went on high alert, canceled educational activities & public gatherings were banned.
Iran’s nuclear facilities & ballistic missile stocks were hit. 20 military brass, 9 top nuclear scientists–all liquidated. The IRGC headquarters were struck.
5/ pic.twitter.com/hbU9qB0eQU— H.A. Hazony (@HAHazony) June 15, 2025
“On Friday night, all of Israel went on high alert, canceled educational activities & public gatherings were banned. Iran’s nuclear facilities & ballistic missile stocks were hit. 20 military brass, 9 top nuclear scientists–all liquidated. The IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) headquarters were struck. In subsequent attacks, Iranian air force hangers were destroyed, cargo planes bombed, & reportedly, 9 of their outclassed Migs were downed. Iran continues to claim it has downed IAF (Israeli Air Force) birds, but no evidence has corroborated this questionable claim.”
By early Saturday morning the IDF announced full aerial dominance over NW Iran.
The leg work for this was actually done last year, both in neutralizing Syria and the preliminary strikes on Iran see thread by Naf.
7/https://t.co/bcjOfvIkIH— H.A. Hazony (@HAHazony) June 15, 2025
“By early Saturday morning the IDF (Israeli Defense Forces) announced full aerial dominance over NW Iran. The leg work for this was actually done last year, both in neutralizing Syria and the preliminary strikes on Iran (see thread by Naftali Hazony). It’s important to understand that Iranian nuke facilities are highly fortified. The IAF is repeatedly bombing the same targets in hopes of busting through as they did assassinate (Hezbollah leader Hassan) Nasrallah. Short of US heavy bombers (or Israeli Jerichos) it may take weeks to destroy the facilities.
Isolationists never understood was that Iran was never going to take a nuke deal–they couldn’t. Iran is an ageing nation, with belligerent minorities, a collapsing economy, & water shortages. Israel, on the other hand, has a growing economy, population, and military. Iran is expressing the nature of expansionist powers, known since the Melian Dialogue: If they stop expanding, they’ll be overthrown by the people they oppress. They cannot accept a truce. Every year that goes by, they weaken vis a vis Israel. They must win this generation.”
The first Persian-Jewish War began on Oct. 7th to prevent an Israel-Saudi alliance.
But the war didn’t go according to plan, as I have written elsewhere, instead of wounding Israel, the war destroyed Iran’s proxy in Syria & decimated their forces in Lebanon & Gaza.
11/…— H.A. Hazony (@HAHazony) June 15, 2025
“The first Persian-Jewish War began on Oct. 7th to prevent an Israel-Saudi alliance,” Hazony wrote. “But the war didn’t go according to plan, as I have written elsewhere, instead of wounding Israel, the war destroyed Iran’s proxy in Syria & decimated their forces in Lebanon & Gaza. Iran’s direct attacks on Israel were ineffective; Israeli retaliation left Iran without any defenses. The ONLY card Iran had left was the nuke. If the Mullahs relinquished the Bomb, their hopes for regional dominance were over. Within a generation, they would face revolution. So Iran would NEVER take a deal. Bibi knew this, & he told Trump as much. But Trump had a problem: His base was sick of wars. Bibi too, had a problem: any attack on Iran would take a Herculean effort, requiring immense preparation.”
Here began a plan of such nefarious deception, even a jaded Machiavellian is astonished.
Pretend disagreements about Gaza, Qatari planes, throwing red meat to the isolationist base, offending pro-Israel voices. Supposed belligerent phone calls. Ongoing negotiations.
14/ pic.twitter.com/udBlRmcosD— H.A. Hazony (@HAHazony) June 15, 2025
“Here began a plan of such nefarious deception, even a jaded Machiavellian is astonished. Pretend disagreements about Gaza, Qatari planes, throwing red meat to the isolationist base, offending pro-Israel voices. Supposed belligerent phone calls. Ongoing negotiations. Everyone ate this up. Israeli press screamed that Bibi lost Trump. Isolationists jeeringly called Israel a client state. Pro-Israel voices shrieked bloody murder, had Trump betrayed them? Of course, one could wonder why the most pro-Israel President in history would do such a thing. Inside Israel, smoke & mirrors proliferated: Bibi allies were threatening to topple his government. Bibi was going on vacation. Netanyahu’s son was getting married. Witkoff set new dates for the talks,” Hazony wrote.
Inside Israel, smoke & mirrors proliferated:
Bibi allies were threatening to topple his government.
Bibi was going on vacation.
Netanyahu’s son was getting married.
Witkoff set new dates for the talks.As @jpodhoretz said, Bibi was Corleone, and the Mafia Dons were misled.
16/ pic.twitter.com/xc06euJKLn— H.A. Hazony (@HAHazony) June 15, 2025
“Israel learned a lot from its Hezbollah war: They assassinated the Iranian Air Force command officers by luring them to a targetable location. They hit all the top generals of IRGC & army, causing hours of confusion as no one was in charge in Persia. Iran’s response was delayed for hours, probably because of the damaged chain-of-command. The IAF’s 100s of of bombing runs in such short time at such a distance solidifies Israel as the dominant military power in the Middle East. If Oct. 7th was a massive failure of paradigm, preparation, & operation on the part of the IDF’s Army and the (Israeli domestic intel agency) Shabak, the Iran & Hezbollah operations were the opposite for Mossad and IAF. Mossad assets zoomed around releasing drone swarms with impunity as Tehran was bombed by IAF.”
Mossad assets zoomed around releasing drone swarms with impunity as Tehran was bombed by IAF
19/ pic.twitter.com/3hiyZckQei
— H.A. Hazony (@HAHazony) June 15, 2025
“Hats off to Trump and Bibi, they played the world. But they did more than that, they have redefined Israel-US relations and reshaped the ME for a generation the same way Reagan, Thatcher, & John Paul II did for Eastern Europe. Consider this @michaeljknowles poll: Right-wing Americans want two things: First, America’s enemies to be defeated. Second, not to fight wars. Are these two not contradictory? Isolationists argue that every conflict in the world is the same as Iraq in the 2000s.”
Consider this @michaeljknowles poll:
Rightwing Americans want two things,Americas enemies be defeated.
Second, not to fight wars.Are these two not contradictory? Isolationists argue that every conflict in the world is the same as Iraq ~2000s.
17/ pic.twitter.com/VvJDefuAwu— H.A. Hazony (@HAHazony) June 15, 2025
“But as @RMConservative pointed out, the problem with Iraq was not the war, but getting bogged down in nation-building & decades-long occupation. This conflict is nothing of the sort. No one is considering an invasion of Iran. The US doesn’t necessarily need to get involved. It’s true, US bases in the Middle East are vulnerable to retaliation. But what is the purpose of military bases that RESTRAIN your military action for fear of retaliation? Indeed, there is none. And these bases probably should be scaled back & retired.”
It’s true, US bases in the ME are vulnerable to retaliation.
But what is the purpose of military bases that RESTRAIN your military action for fear of retaliation?
Indeed, there is none. And these bases probably should be scaled back & retired.
19/ pic.twitter.com/mSYt1haHrI— H.A. Hazony (@HAHazony) June 15, 2025
Instead of the US getting dragged into endless military colonialism, the Trump Doctrine has always been: Let our allies fight for us. If an ally cannot forward our interests in a region, they aren’t an ally; they are a resource drain. Israel is the model. As Israel did in 1981 in Iraq & in Syria in 2007, they will prevent Iran from acquiring WMD.s that would threaten EU & US. @oren_cass argues, far from being a resource drain, Israel will take the hits to ensure the Middle East theatre does not threaten the West,” Hazony wrote.
“Israel is neither capable nor interested in occupying Iran. This isn’t the Bush doctrine, as @ShidelerK pointed out, Israel is not primarily concerned with regime change in Iran. Israel is interested in neutralizing offensive capabilities. This is a defanging operation. Even intelligent isolationists seem incapable of differentiating the two. If the Mullahs fall, it will be due to the actions of the citizens of Iran, not because of invasion. Worth listening to the remarks of the Crown Prince in Exile on the matter:”
“Iran knows this, & has shut all internet communications & shuttered the skies in their country. What the Persian people will choose to do is up to them. But it seems Elon Musk has put up free Starlink internet. If they wanted to coordinate a revolution, that would be the way. As @ElbridgeColby has indicated in the past, the US has bigger things to worry about in the South China Sea than Iranian expansionism. But it is also the case that a nuclear Iran is a clear threat to US strategy in the Middle East. The question becomes if Iran can be neutralized with minimal drain on the US.”
Iran knows this, & has shut all internet communications & shuttered the skies in their country.
What the Persian people will choose to do is up to them. But it seems Elon must has put up free Starlink internet, if they wanted to coordinate a revolution, that would be the way.… pic.twitter.com/Phw0a3cBiI
— H.A. Hazony (@HAHazony) June 15, 2025
“Secretary (of State Marco) Rubio’s quick distancing of the US from Israel’s attack in the first hours was a good call. Let Israel what it’s capable of, minimize retaliation against US assets, and see if the US involvement is even necessary. Trump’s policy vis-a-vis Israel is the opposite of Biden’s. Instead of micromanaging every step, he stands back, lets Israel make its own moves. If Israel wins, he takes credit. If Israel trips up, he shrugs his shoulders, “Wasn’t my idea.” It’s called “plausible deniability.”
Saudi Arabia criticized the attacks, but their interests are with defanging Iran. Iranian drones are being shot down in their airspace. Qatar is more interesting. The people funding the anti-Israel media campaign in the media are also defending Israel.
Again, the rule is “Everything is spin.” Believe no one. They are all lying. It’s crazy to consider that perhaps the Qataris were playing Tucker, fanning isolationist flames in US at Israel’s request, further shrouding the incoming attack. Probably not. But we’ll never know.”
Again, the rule is “Everything is spin.” Believe no one. They are all lying.
It’s crazy to consider that perhaps the Qataris were playing Tucker, fanning isolationist flames in US at Israel’s request, further shrouding the incoming attack. Probably not. But we’ll never know.… pic.twitter.com/aXx8wWjeKY
— H.A. Hazony (@HAHazony) June 15, 2025
“Iran’s retaliations have been lackluster. 6 Israelis are dead, ~60 lightly injured. (as of yesterday, June 15) But Israel has made clear that they will not tolerate the targeting of civilian population. In response, Israel began bombing Oil & Gas infrastructure in Iran. Regardless, Iran has not managed to field the kinds of responses they did last year. If this is all the Mullahs can do, they’re finished. All Israelis (of all political affiliations) are resolute: They are going to take this to the end. We’re moving into a new Middle East. No one will make any major moves until it’s clear Iran has lost its nuclear capabilities. But as I have written in the past, if Israel wins, there will be a peace deal between Saudi/Sunni Monarchies & Israel. As Mike Doran argues, Trump’s new Middle East unites the Israel-Saudi-Egypt axis with the Qatar-Turkey axis against the Iranian axis. If Iran falls, Trump’s enemies will be gone. Trade routes from India > Gulf > Israel > Turkey >EU will be secured, & China will be muscled out of the region.”
Well argued by @Doranimated, Trump’s new ME unites the IL-SA-Egpt axis with the Qtr-Trky axis against the Iranian axis.
If Iran falls, Trump’s enemies will be gone. Trade routes from India > Gulf >IL > Trky >EU will be secured, & China will be muscled out of the region.
32/ pic.twitter.com/bCwQcboJGM— H.A. Hazony (@HAHazony) June 15, 2025
“Most people don’t appreciate the enormity of Trump’s play, which has been developing since the first Trump admin, pivoting on the central Abraham Accords. Essentially, if successful, this war will close the Middle East as a theater, and complete US pivot to China.
P.S. To all the Pro-Israel and isolationists losing their minds on Twitter in the past two months: I told you so,” Hazony ends.
Hadar Hazony is a Ph.D. student in political theory and constitutional studies at the University of Notre Dame. He ist the son of noted conservative pollitical theorist Yoram Hazony, author of “The Virtue of Nationalism“.
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